Avocados and Christmas Trees ? Vancouver Land Use; ALR; Food ...

In view of yesterday?s spirited and informative discussion (thanks, all), we have withdrawn this morning?s teed-up anecdote and invite the continuation of yesterday?s discussion here today. [Here are a few comments from yesterday's thread]:

?There seem to be some misconceptions about the size and capacity of the ALR.
?The minimum amount of agricultural land necessary for sustainable food security, with a diversified diet similar to those of North America and Western Europe (hence including meat), is 0.5 of a hectare per person. This does not allow for any land degradation such as soil erosion, and it assumes adequate water supplies. Very few populous countries have more than an average of 0.25 of a hectare. It is realistic to suppose that the absolute minimum of arable land to support one person is a mere 0.07 of a hectare?and this assumes a largely vegetarian diet, no land degradation or water shortages, virtually no post-harvest waste, and farmers who know precisely when and how to plant, fertilize, irrigate, etc. [FAO, 1993]?
Total hectares of ALR in fraser valley: 132,760 in 2009 (stats canada) (less today)
132,760/0.07 = 1.9 million people. That?s how many the ALR can support, best case scenario. That?s for people fed a subsistence, almost vegan diet, where one crop failure means famine.
Keeping current diets up: 265,500 people. (That?s 0.26 million).
Current lower mainland population: 2.6 million.
While fishing adds to the total number of people, we are nevertheless completely dependent on food imports. Any food supply chain disruption is going to cause a slight? inconvenience to the normal process of cellular respiration. Worth keeping in mind when we look at the planned growth strategy for the region ? was it 4 million by 2050??
- The Poster Formerly Known As Anonymous

?Out of anything that should be outsourced and diversified for stability shouldn?t food be? Locavore sentiments are great, but in reality, being able to transfer food from areas of plenty to areas with little is sort of a fundamental requirement for stable societies. Starving people tend to get pretty cranky.?
- UBCghettodweller

?The issue is transportation. We are wholly dependent on liquid fuels for that, and they just quadrupled in cost in a decade. It?s an awfully long way by sailboat or horsewagon from the places that have the food to those that don?t. The second issue are chemical fertilizers, which will also become scarcer, diminishing yields per acre everywhere.?
- The Poster Formerly Known As Anonymous

?The ALR is not about locavore sentiments. It?s about security. It?s well and good to diversify and outsource food production, but if one day one of the areas with plenty can?t or won?t send the food shipments for whatever reason, a shitload of people get very cranky, very quickly.?
- The Poster Formerly Known As Anonymous

?Acquaculture? More factory chicken farms? Electrified railways supplied by nuclear or hydro power? Nuclear generated hydrogen for transport? Not to be flippant or anything, but I?ve been hearing about the end of the world for over 2,000 years, and science has proven that mankind is unsustainable for 200 years. Yet our food production and productivity continues to grow, birthrate is declining in most countries, and we?ve always solved our problems before. I think it?s a bit egotistical to think that, even though everything, been (comparatively) skittles and beer for our species for 200,000 years now, it?s all going to go pear shaped before this generation passes the baton.?
- Ralph Cramdown

??Running out of land?. ?Immigration?. ?Mountains?. ?Water?. ?Hard asset?. The list goes on. What these rationales have in common, besides being fallacious, is that they?re nice ?n easy for folks to understand, and make handy talking points for promoters. And how about this gem, heard from a senior RBC advisor, in defence of Vancouver?s current real estate prices: ?Well, everyone needs a roof over their head!?
- El Ninja

?We are completely dependent on food imports.?
Then, why are we growing Christmas trees instead of wheat in the ALR?
- Cyril Tourneur

?Christmas trees? That?s part of what the Fraser Institute calls ?human ingenuity and market forces.? Have you all considered that this obsession with being self-sufficient in the lower mainland is just a group version of ?Prepper? madness?
?Britain has not been fully self-sufficient since the eighteenth century. It imported large quantities of wheat, eggs and sugar during the Victorian era, growing an increasingly small proportion of what it ate until World War II, when millions of consumers followed the plea to ?dig for victory?. This self-sufficiency trend was immediately reversed after the war ended, however.?
Even at the height of the Battle of the Atlantic, people weren?t starving in Britain. Those in the cities weren?t eating well, but they weren?t starving. And, not to put too fine a point on it, commodity and shipping prices were rather high at that point. Y?all are wanting to prepare for a worse scenario than that??
- Ralph Cramdown

?

A few thoughts from a non-expert in this field:

This all looks like a problem with dietary behaviours as much as it is a problem with land use.
As an example, Vancouver Island apparently imports 90% of its food. We suspect that number could be reduced by a lot, but people choose not to produce the food and/or change their diets.

It seems people enjoy having access to the dietary variety offered by foods sourced globally. Who wants to give up avocados and bananas unless necessary? Consequently, dietary behaviour will likely be shaped by circumstance rather than choice: people will only give up certain items when they become unavailable, or prohibitively expensive. Fuel costs and other such considerations will likely apply natural pressures in this regard. People will have to adapt. If such changes happen in a precipitous fashion, that could be a problem.

As a society, should we put the effort and resources into developing an arrangement where we ensure that adequate ongoing protein and calories supplies for our entire population are available from BC & Canadian sources? We could do this, but there would be substantial expense involved. A bit like earthquake preparation, or forms of insurance. A diet from such sources would likely be far less diversified than we currently enjoy; it?d be more an emergency measure than an immediate and total replacement for current diets. Surplus during non-crisis periods (such as the present) could be exported, perhaps making the system partly self-supporting.
How close are we to having such a plan working right now?
If we had to immediately stop all food imports/exports, what would our diets look like?
Would we have enough calories/protein to sustain the Canadian population?
Even if we did set up such a plan, we?d expect people to continue to enjoy the diversified globally-sourced diet, while it was still available. Ingenuity may allow for current circumstances to continue for far longer than many anticipate.

Yesterday I expressed the opinion: ?I think that the ?scarcity? of land (in Vancouver) is greatly over exaggerated, even within the ALR restraints. At the same time, I suspect that the ALR applies even further artificial limitations on land that is available? I suspect that there is massive amounts of land available for the accommodation of people, AND enough land to meet our agricultural needs.? Perhaps I?m wrong on the latter bit, as TPFKAA has suggested.
But what percentage of Vancouver?s food supply currently comes from the ALR?
If the ALR is only supplying us with a small fraction of our current diets, how important is it as part of any future food supply plan?
If the ALR is being used to grow Christmas trees, to support ?hobby farms?, and to grow crops that are largely exported, why not more strongly encourage it to be used it for local food supply, or, alternatively, use it for housing?

- vreaa

?
Pre-emptive retort from TPFKAA:
?We need to start creating infrastructure that can tap other sources, or changing our profligacy with energy use, or both. While in principle there may be enough alternative energy to supply our needs, it takes many, many years to put the machinery in place to tap into these energies. You can?t build the port mann bridge in a day, nor can you replace the energy from oil at the pace of market forces. Market forces will lead to an abrupt cutoff, with not enough time to put that infrastructure in place. It?s hard to build and design shit when you hungry, the lights don?t work, and trucks can?t carry yo shit around. S?all I?m sayin, y?know?
The ALR is a damn important piece of land that needs not to have condos and sprawly mcmansions slapped onto it. It is a part of the solution.?

Source: http://vreaa.wordpress.com/2012/12/11/avocados-and-christmas-trees-vancouver-land-use-alr-food/

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